Market Updates

To receive our market updates right to your phone, please contact Ryan in Canton at 605-987-2714 or by email at Ryan.Long@chsinc.com

*Historical market updates can be found at the bottom of this page.  

Join one of our upcoming Grain Marketing Meeting:


Morning Market 1/17/19:

-Corn Unch; Beans up 1-2
-More modest rebounding today after Tuesday’s slide
-Beans have managed to stay above its ascending trend line for now
-Both corn and beans have dipped below their 100 & 50 day MA’s
-A top level Chinese official is scheduled to be in DC Jan 30-31st to talk trade
-FSA offices have opened temporarily at select locations, for more information click this link:
https://www.farmers.gov/sites/default/files/documents/OpenFSAServiceCenters
Outlook:

-The markets interaction with its 100 & 50 day moving averages (MA’s) may give a sense of price direction in the short term
-I will be holding a 101 marketing class to discuss basic market concepts next week Tuesday Jan 22nd @ 10am in the Canton office

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/16/19:

-Corn up 2-3; Beans down 1
-Markets are finding some technical buying interest today after yesterday’s slide
-It has been a technical driven trade the last couple of days as both markets breached floors to signal further selling
-Trade is in limbo on fundamental (S&D) data as USDA reports remain absent
-Trade is also awaiting a trade resolution & continuation of the SA weather narrative
-Hearing that Iran and So Kor have purchased some sizable amounts of US corn
-The US and China are said to meet again around Jan 31st to talk trade

Outlook:

-I remain bearish on beans in the long term for two reasons: the S&D picture is ugly, and we are missing our demand window into China as the SA bean crop is being harvested
-I am bullish on corn still until the fundamentals change or the market starts trading acres for next year

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/15/19:

-Corn down 3-5; Beans down 9-10
-Both markets stuck in a downward grind with so many unknowns
-Nothing feeding the bull today
-The bulls want to see USDA reports, Chinese buying, and degrading SA weather
-Central Brazil has reportedly received some rain relief but will turn dry again in extended forecast
-Nothing positive or fresh to entice buying interest today
-Corn is following beans and wheat

Outlook:

-Beans are beginning to chip away at SA weather premium along with premium built on Chinese trade expectations
-Corn remains strong fundamentally but will struggle to chart its own path from beans and wheat
-USDA reports are key for both markets on a new direction; for corn the lack of finalized yields and export projections is harmful

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Morning Market 1/14/19:

-Corn up 2-3; Beans down 4-5
-The bulls are running in corn today with lack of gov reports
-Beans taking a breather as nothing new or positive has been announced with either SA weather or China trade
-Reported today that bean purchases from China for Dec 18’ was the worst Dec performance since 2011
-Brazilian weather is basically unchanged from Friday, central and northern areas remain dry
-Arg is expected to dry up and Brazil to receive rain in the 5-7 day forecast
-Despite tariffs, China’s trade surplus set a new record up 17% year on year

Outlook:

-Weather premium is eroding today a bit I think
-While yields are hurt to some degree in Brazil, they will likely still have a big enough crop that is bearish for US bean market
-Corn market is charting its own path today, lacking fresh news on domestic S&D data

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!

Historical Market Updates:

January 2019

Midday Market 1/11/19:

-Corn up 2; Beans up 4-5
-Markets rebounding a little today
-Bean market had a major correction yesterday due to unmet expectations on China/US trade progress
-Brazil has received some rain relief but not out of the woods yet
-Arg beans are said to be ok with little to no effect yet from excessive moisture
-Average estimates for Arg and Brazil production are 55.29mmt and 120.1mmt respectively
-Most of the risk premium built into soybeans on trade progress has evaporated
-Fund rebalancing was a factor in yesterday’s hard slide
-Despite yesterday’s slump March corn & beans did hold above their 50 day MA’s of 3.77 & 9.05 respectively
-Today’s WASDE report is delayed indefinitely due to partial gov shutdown

Outlook:

-Potential for both markets to bounce back if a deal can be struck with China in the near term
-China has been buying during trade talks but the market is unable to confirm the quantity, I think China is still buying to fill reserves and extend goodwill
-Still a very good idea to be thinking about price targets and be ready for rally opportunities

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Morning Market 1/10/19:

-Corn down 3-4; Beans down 15
-Market is digesting trade progress with China today and Brazilian crop estimates
-China stated that the two sides have “established a foundation” going forward with very few details given
-CONAB has reduced the Brazilian bean crop from 120mmt to 118.8mmt
-CONAB surprisingly has raised the first corn crop estimate slightly from 91.1mmt to 91.2mmt

Outlook:

-I think the market had an expectation of where trade progress might land but also discouraged to a degree that a resolution is absent
-Market is weighing SA crops more heavily today I believe and weather for the next 2-3 weeks will be key
-Corn is along for the ride today but also weighing SA corn crop

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/9/19:

-Corn up 1-2; Beans up 3-4
-Market recovering some of its losses from yesterday
-Buying interest in both markets attributed to SA weather and trade optimism
-USDA reports remain delayed indefinitely until a spending deal is made
-This leaves the market guessing to a degree on many different metrics
-Brazil’s 10-14 day forecast predicting missed rains due to high pressure system over bean belt
-Completely opposite situation in Arg as excessive rains expected to continue and cause flooding
-The USDA has extended the sign up deadline for the MFP (Trump Money) program
-US officials said to release trade talk statement @ 7pm
-Gov shutdown looks to continue as both side are firmly entrenched

Outlook:

-3 factors that are affecting market direction: trade progress, SA weather, and gov shutdown
-I think a lot of risk premium has already been built into the bean market and we could be one rain away in Brazil from losing it
-The market will need to reconcile USDA reports once released and in the meantime could bottle up a lot of volatility

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/8/19:

-Corn down 1; Beans down 6-7
-Brazil received some below average rain relief
-Beans also getting beat up a little today on profit taking
-Chinese trade talks are going well as US officials signal that a deal can be made soon
-Talks have continued into today
-Rumor that China is buying beans but when and how much remains a mystery until USDA reporting can confirm
-All or most USDA reports have ceased indefinitely during gov shutdown
-SA forecast suggesting that northern Arg stays wet and central Brazil stays dry
-CONAB to release Brazil crop estimates Jan 10th, expectation is a reduction in corn and bean production
-Trump to address the nation from the Oval Office @ 8pm CT concerning border security

Outlook:

-I think beans are correcting today in an overbought environment
-Trade news is positive and SA weather remains tenuous which should continue to give beans support
-It will be interesting to see where corn goes with lack of final yields, exports, and December stocks data

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/7/19:

-Corn Unch; Beans up 1-2
-Market is in “wait and see” mode on a number of issues today: Trade talks, gov reports, and SA weather
-Trade talks are happening as planned today, no official word on outcome yet
-Most if not all USDA reports have ceased indefinitely until spending deal is made
-Key USDA reports missing: Fund position, export sales, WASDE, and December stocks
-SA weather has been able to push and shove its way into the headlines in the last couple weeks
-Brazil received rain over the weekend but looks drier again this week
-Arg remains too wet but viewed as very little impact to the crop at this point
-The pivotal Jan 11th WASDE will be delayed regardless of spending deal but a new release date should be announced

Outlook:

-Both markets cautious on a new direction
-We are seeing attractive new crop futures levels: Beans @ 9.60; Corn @ 4.03
-Old crop opportunities looking better in both markets, have price targets in mind!

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Some CHS locations have winter hours now of 8am-4pm
For more information : https://www.chsbrandon.com/grain/grain-locations/

Midday Market 1/4/18:

-Corn up 2-3; Beans up 6-7
-Market is trading SA weather today and positive trade rhetoric
-Some key areas of Brazil have reportedly experienced a 30 day drought
-Reports also saying that impacts to the crop in affected areas could be “catastrophic” if no relief comes
-Brazilian crop projections are being reduced and the next CONAB report will be Jan 10th
-Rumor that China has been buying US beans but no Gov reports to substantiate the rumor
-USDA announced that the critical Jan 11th WASDE will be delayed due to gov shutdown

Outlook:
-Corn market is building premium around the prospect of a yield reduction on the now delayed Jan WASDE
-Keep in mind that we are seeing risk premium being built into both markets, have price price targets in mind in case opportunities slip away
Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/3/19:

-Corn up 1; Beans up 3-4
-Reluctant buying interest in corn & beans today
-SA weather is giving us some strength
-Trade is looking for a new direction from SA crop issues or Chinese buying/trade deal
-China and the US are scheduled to meet Jan 7th in Beijing
-USDA will announce tomorrow if the critical Jan 11th WASDE will be delayed
-China relies heavily on beans from Brazil and crop losses there could be leverage for the US at the negotiating table

Outlook:
-Corn feels range bound in the short term until something new breaks
-I think MCH corn has the potential of hitting $4 futures at some point so never hurts to be thinking about target prices on unsold grain
-Beans are building premium around SA weather and positive trade news for now
Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/2/19:

-Corn down 1; Beans up 12-13
-SA weather has permeated the trade today as Brazil appears to be dry with above normal temps forecasted
-Corn export and ethanol numbers are weak, leading corn to stagnant today
-Trade wants to see continued buying interest from China
-Talk of a fund rebalancing event that will happen next week
-China and the US scheduled to meet on Jan 7th to talk trade
-Jan 11th WASDE may be delayed due to government shutdown
-Rumor that China could buy another 2 MMT of soybeans soon
 
Outlook:
-There is enough soybeans still developing in Brazil to get the trades attention on the developing dry conditions
-I think beans could retract back to around 8.30 cash which is a recent high set back on the Dec 12th
-I would also be rewarding bean rallies and scale up pricing
-Corn is stuck in sideways trade and in the short term may stay that way due to demand shortfalls
 
Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!

December 2018

Midday Market 12/31/18:

-Corn down 1-2; Beans down 1
-Sluggish holiday trade today
-Beans started off in positive territory today but lost some steam
-Trump tweeted over the weekend that he had another round of positive interactions with President Xi
-Market is eyeballing SA weather more and more as the crop is still developing in Arg and parts of Brazil
-Early bean yields are being reported as “disappointing” in Brazil but they are still on pace to have a record crop
-Total bean production in Brazil is beginning to be adjusted down anywhere from 3-5 MMT

Outlook:

-The SA bean crop is on shaky ground but weather impacts will effect Arg more than Brazil in my opinion
-I think the market will begin to trade SA weather after the new year
-Corn is loosing a step with beans but I remain optimistic on upside into the new year

Thanks! Have a safe and happy New Year celebration!


Midday Market 12/28/18:

-Corn up 2-3; Beans up 13-15
-Bean meal is giving us strength today
-Corn is up in sympathy
-China is allowing US rice imports for the first time ever
-Strong optimism on more China bean purchases upcoming and/or a trade resolution
-US and China are said to be meeting on Jan 7th to talk trade
-Brazil weather is non-threatening but some damage has been done on early beans due to dryness
-Arg weather is too wet in key areas and concern that crop may get hurt
-Trump threatens to cancel USMCA deal if border wall doesn’t get funded
-Expectations of a showdown between Trump and newly elected house Democratic’s to take place
-Sears has until the end of day to either get bought out or file bankruptcy
-All USDA reports have ceased through gov shutdown

Outlook:

-I am a tad bullish on SA weather giving us upside but it is still very early to bank on it
-Any significant bean upside could be handicapped by bearish ending stocks
-Corn is along for the ride today but I am optimistic that it will find it’s own path to the upside in JFM

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 12/27/18

-Corn up 1; Beans Unch
-Hope everyone had an awesome Christmas with family!!
-Sluggish holiday trade today with no real excitement to speak of
-Month end consolidation taking place today as well
-China trade, politics, and SA weather is still front and center for beans
-Government shut down is in effect which means the Jan WASDE could be delayed or cancelled
-Tariff aid payments will temporarily discontinue at the Lincoln county FSA beginning 3pm today
-Statewide FSA offices will not reopen next week if shutdown continues
-Details here : https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__content.govdelivery.com_accounts_USDAOC_bulletins_2240e85&d=DwIBAg&c=lAq-Bpf2Dj4ZrYmEHEkmEA&r=b2Gb21O0XUhL49XzT6Y_Dmfq99TsqiebENbhtuLwGAU&m=5xfpkEWzmsbkFLLMaRmDjnshZINkVW_6BuqBKekBp2w&s=zn2N5VQnmAeTNVl9hTgTLqsMrX_tEhAEb5Hmu05h-aU&e=
-SA weather is ok with rain relief but chatter that dryness has hurt crops in some areas

Outlook:

-Market needs new direction from trade, SA production, global demand, gov reports, etc…
-Nothing positive right now to lift markets out of month end and stagnant holiday trade
-I expect markets to bounce back a few pennies post holiday and month end

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 12/13/18:

Corn up 1; Beans down 9-10
-Bean market struggling find continued buying interest today
-China has been buying to the tune of 1.5 MMT of US soybeans since yesterday
-Market seems to have been “buying the rumor and selling the fact” leading up to this suspenseful and highly anticipated crescendo of the trade war
-Soybeans hit its highest price since June 15th yesterday, looking at the chart the market started trading tariffs on May 25th
-The House has passed the new Farm Bill and is ready for Trumps signature Tuesday next week
-Corn market is a bit stuck today with month end consolidation

Outlook:

-Today’s bean market doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me but am hearing that traders want to see more Chinese buying
-My bias is that this is a short term correction for beans and let’s see what tomorrow brings
-Corn has been steady as a rock today and I think it will continue to do so until the demand outlook changes

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS grain location or representative with any questions!


Afternoon Market 12/12/18:

-Corn Unch; Beans up 4
-Trade optimism is fueling buying interest today but has backed off
-Trump is tweeting positive rhetoric today fueling the optimism
-It was announced that the 2nd half MFP payment will be delayed again
-Gathering that markets are hopeful tariffs will be removed soon
-Equity markets are up triple digits in optimism today as well
-Mexico bot 130 kmt of US soybeans in what’s considered a routine sale
-Another 110kmt US soybeans was purchased as well, destination unknown
-Weather is trending dryer in areas of Brazil and Argy, causing a few heads to turn
-Corn is holding together in sympathy with beans today

Outlook:

-Market still waiting on tangible demand from China, a deal to be made, and the buying to start
-I think we are seeing very good new crop opportunities, corn @ 3.54 cash and beans @ 8.70
-Earlier the better on nc 19’ marketing
-CHS has compass options available to start marketing 19’ corn @ 4.25, subject to market change

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 12/11/18:

Corn Unch; Beans up 3-4

-Market remains cautious until more trade news breaks
-Trump tweeted today that good conversations with China were happening and to expect important announcements
-Chatter that the arrest of a Chinese CEO at the DOJ’s behest could torpedo trade talks
-CONAB released Brazil production estimates this AM that came close to expectations
-A record breaking bean crop is still expected in Brazil but estimates remain modest
-Weather is trending drier in certain areas of Brazil but non-threatening at the moment
-December WASDE was released @ 11am, nothing surprising in it other than some global S&D changes
-USDA will finalize yields on the Jan 11th WASDE

Outlook:

-Optimism on the trade front is keeping support in beans for now
-If a record SA bean crop happens it makes for a very bearish environment going into next year.
-When, why, and how much we trade with China will be key for our markets
-I’m optimistic on corn going into next year as we look at global demand, domestic demand, and potentially another yield reduction on the Jan WASDE
-Argument to be made if corn can find upward mobility despite a weak bean market

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS grain location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 12/5/18:

-Corn down 1; Beans up 1
-Lack of Chinese trade details keeping Ag markets quieter today
-Trade was weaker overnight but is bouncing back a little today
-China has issued first statement since trade talks saying nothing that’s very surprising to the market: We will “expand imports according to the needs of the domestic market and people”
-The demand window is shrinking with China so we are left wondering when the buying will occur
-Rumors circulating that at this point China could simply buy beans to replace reserves
-Stock Market is closed in honor of George H.W. Bush today

Outlook:

-Trade still waiting for a reason to buy but also aware of how the demand window is shrinking
-Regardless of how and why China starts buying, it will be positive to bean market once they start
-In the short term, I see corn and beans staying sideways until something new breaks
“We know what works. Freedom works. We know what’s right. Freedom is right”
-George H.W Bush, Rest In Peace


Morning Market 12/4/18:

-Corn up Unch; Beans up 4
-Some follow through buying today after yesterday’s positive trade news
-Market is still digesting the trade talk details and more specifically the lack thereof
-China has 90 days to offer a plan of changes centered around US demands
-90 day period beginning on Dec 1st not Jan 1st as was initially reported
-Another round of trade talks are scheduled for mid-December
-Farmer selling yesterday was significant and worked to mute some of the upside
-SA is on pace to have another solid corn and bean crop, chatter that Brazil will be harvesting well ahead of average

Outlook:

-Speculative bean buyers are said to be waiting in the wings for a reason to buy
-With the trade details lacking, the specs I think are reluctant to stick their neck out
-If a trade resolution were to occur, we cannot forgot how fundamentally bearish beans are at the moment
-Basis outlook: I am neutral on basis for corn & beans until a few market variables play out such as Chinese trade, global corn demand, and how the MFP will skew equilibrium
-Never hurts to establish orders in a volatile market!

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 12/3/18:

-Corn up 2-4; Beans up 10-11
-The big story today is trade progress with China
-Talks between the US and China went well as both countries agreed to halt further tariffs for 90 days
-China stated that they will be buying “substantial” amounts of US Ag products to reduce trade imbalance
-Most of the details are left ambiguous at the moment and these details will be key to market direction going forward
-Corn is a follower today riding the coattails of the bean market
-Winter weather will make remainder of harvested corn difficult across the belt
-Chatter that Milo/Ethanol business will increase with China going forward

Outlook:

-Market is left to digest trade details and will be questioning the when & where of agreements made
-I think upside was muted in beans to a degree as there is a perceived reluctance due to bearish fundamentals coupled with farmer selling
-WASDE out on Dec 11th next week

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


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