Market Updates

To receive our market updates right to your phone, please contact Ryan in Canton at 605-987-2714 or by email at Ryan.Long@chsinc.com

*Historical market updates can be found at the bottom of this page.  


Midday Market 3/22/19:

-Corn up 2-3; Beans down 2-3
-Confirmation of China corn purchases is fueling upside today
-China bot 300k MT = 11M bushels
-Market has covered a large volume of short positions as they were caught oversold
-Trump is saying that a deal is still looking good with China, also saying no snags in negotiations thus far
-Reported that Trump will keep tariffs on China as a means of enforcing a deal
-Flooding in NE, IA, & SD has cut off 13% of the US ethanol supply

Outlook:

-Market wants to see more China-buying and closure to the ongoing trade talks
-Bean fundamentals are negative and will be a very heavy anchor on prices
-Key reports next Friday may give the markets a new direction

Thanks! Give me a shout with any questions!

Ryan Long
CHS Brandon
605-337-5744


Midday Market 3/21/19:

-Corn up 3-4; Beans up 2
-Sluggish “wait and see” market has developed
-Current US weather dynamic is supportive to the market for now
-Weather going into April will be watched closely
-US officials are scheduled to visit China next week
-Chatter that China is expected to buy US corn as early as April, up to 20 MMT = 787M bushels
-Nebraska reporting $440M in early crop losses due to flooding, reports of military helicopters feeding hay to stranded cattle

Outlook:

-China buying US corn is positive for corn market and could make up for some disappointing export numbers
-I think the upcoming planting intentions and stocks report will be the next key price mover, likely stay sideways until then
-CHS Brandon is offering 10 $500 scholarships this year, deadline to sign up is very near! See link for more information:
https://www.chsbrandon.com/scholarship-program/

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS grain location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 3/18/19:

-Corn down 1-2; Beans down 5-6
-Weaker tone to start the week as the market contemplates China trade, weather, and the COT report from Friday
-COT report showed the funds holding massive short positions, record short for corn
-New private estimates out for planted acres: corn @ 90.4 million acres, beans @ 87.7 million acres
-NE, IA, and WI have declared states of emergencies due to flooding
-1 million lbs of illegal Chinese pork was seized in New York over AFS concerns
-Positive rhetoric is still holding on China trade talks, nothing new being reported

Outlook:

-Market remains oversold, corn especially, so upside opportunities may come through short covering
-US weather is garnering more attention as is the acres debate which in my mind will be the short term price mover

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS grain location or representative with any questions!


Afternoon Market 3/15/19:

-Corn closed up 1-2, Beans closed up 9-10
-Market optimism on trade sparked some short covering today
-Some weather risk premium may have been added today as well due to US flooding issues
-Being reported that China’s parliament is passing laws that address US trade demands
-China purchased US hogs which took the market by surprise
-ASF did significant damage to hog populations in China
-SA weather remains non-threatening for Argy beans and the safrinha corn crop

Outlook:

-Today is another upside correction in an oversold market, need tangible Chinese buying to hold prices
-Market may begin to add more weather risk premium if things do not dry out in the next couple weeks

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS grain location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 3/13/19:

-Corn down 1-2; Beans down 2-3
-Market is taking back some of the gains from yesterday
-Yesterday’s rally was an upside correction as the market had ventured into oversold territory
-Wheat led the charge yesterday, finishing up 25 cents
-USDA has changed how they collect yield data by eliminating August surveys
-The EPA has issued their proposal on year round E-15 and RINS reform
-Not much else that’s fresh or positive currently

Outlook:

-Do short position get threatened going forward or are they justified? The answer will determine short term technical momentum
-Market is waiting on a few fundamental factors for price direction: Argy/US weather, month end reports, and US-China trade resolution

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS grain location or representative with any questions!


Morning Market 3/12/19:

-Corn up 2-3; Beans up 3
-Market is modestly rebounding today after another solid week of downside moves
-Commodities are on the defensive as funds add new shorts and liquidate longs
-A summit date has been put off between the US and China
-The summit was originally predicted to take place this week
-SA weather remains benign as Brazil bean harvest sits at 57% complete
-The Brazilian bean crop is getting smaller, CONAB has it at 113.5 MMT

Outlook:

-Market is lacking fresh or positive news to entice buying interest and the path is easier to the downside
-The market may pivot to US weather soon which looks to be friendly currently
-We have two key reports at month end (Mch 29th): Planting Intentions & Stocks Report

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 3/8/19
-Corn down 1; Beans down 5-6
-Lack of fresh or positive news for our markets today
-Yesterdays corn slide was cited as being due to next years crop prospects
-Some chatter that planting will be delayed in the US but very early still
-Still waiting on more China-US trade news, a summit date may get pushed back
-USDA reporting that China bot 664 KMT of US beans = 26.1 M bushels
-Expectations were much higher for China purchases
-WASDE out today @ 11am, should be nothing surprising to the market

Outlook:
-The path is easier to the downside currently
-I’m optimistic that a trade deal will happen by the end of the month which may stabilize the markets
-This is the time to be “making” prices vs. “waiting” on prices. We have tools available to help you squeeze more value from this market.

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS grain location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 3/5/19:

-Corn up 1; Beans down 6-7
-A strong bout of short covering occurred yesterday
-Buying interest has fallen flat today as market is waiting on more US-China trade details
-US officials saying a deal is nearing the finish line
-China has lowered is economic growth estimates to potentially lowest levels in 30 years
-Brazil’s major highway to port terminals, BR-163, is causing delays for grain movement due to muddy/flooding conditions
-The US acres debate and weather is close to becoming a major focus for the market
-No additional news on corn business with China but chatter circulating that it will be part of the deal

Outlook:

-Markets have moved back into established trading ranges and China trade is the short term price mover
-I think the market is anticipating a deal by the end of the month and if not will likely pivot to US weather
Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Historical Market Updates:

February 2019

Midday Market 3/1/19:

-Corn down 3; Beans down 6-7
-Market is desperately waiting for more trade details with China
-Very tough week for commodities with significant long liquidation and short selling by the funds
-China pig populations are down as much as 15-30%
-Crop insurance rates have been established: corn @ $4.00; beans @ $9.54
-Chatter that the market could pivot quickly to the acres debate after the conclusion of US-China trade talks
-Rumor that China is tendering for soybeans today
-Not much friendly or positive out there!

Outlook:

-Let’s try to remain optimistic that this market will give us better opportunities to market down the road
-In the meantime, we offer our compass products that work to help you price over the market
-This is the time to be “making” prices instead of “waiting” on prices

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 2/27/19:

-Corn Unch; Beans up 3
-Market is modestly recovering today after a hard slide to start the week
-Funds have been heavy sellers of long positions with some new short positions being established
-Trade details with China are lacking and the March 1st deadline has officially been postponed
-Trump citing that good progress is being made with China… we hope
-Big questions remain as to when and how much will China buy?
-Sonny Purdue announced China would buy 10MMT of US beans = 367 million bushels
-Wheat complex has been on a 6 session slide, loosing 60+ cents in what is being called a “Fund rebalancing” event

Outlook:

-Looking at May corn, 3.75 is a major floor that needs to hold for technical momentum
-Beans remain in established trading ranges and need more trade details to determine price direction

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Afternoon Market 2/19/19:

-Corn down 4; Beans down 6
-Market is weak on lack of fresh news
-Trade talks with China have stalled for the time being, leaders have started talking again today
-The March 1st tariff deadline could be extended as talks are ongoing
-Thursday this week the USDA will release its Ag outlook and take an early stab at planting intentions
-Friday this week the USDA will also be releasing export data from the last 6 weeks

Outlook:

-CHS Brandon is offering another dynamic marketing meeting with guest speaker Brian Rydlund, be there @ 10am tomorrow at the Worthing Ag center, meal to follow

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Morning Market 2/14/19:

-Corn down 1; Beans down 5-6
-China has reportedly bought several soybean cargoes from Brazil
-Market is awaiting more news to break on China-US trade talks
-Rhetoric has been positive as well as unofficial statements from both sides this week
-Chatter that a deal is unlikely to include any soybean purchases from China in the near term
-Instead China might be looking at Corn or related products to buy
-Being reported that the March 1st tariff deadline could be delayed

Outlook:

-Corn remains “stuck” waiting on something new to break
-Beans are holding an ascending trend line and now is a great time to utilize orders
-CHS is offering another dynamic marketing meeting with guest speaker Brian Rydlund on Feb 20th @ 10am at the Worthing Agronomy Center, meal to follow presentation

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 2/11/19:

-Corn down 1; Beans down 9
-Very weak session today following the release of Friday’s delayed reports
-Friday’s WASDE did not surprise the market, final yields: corn @ 176.4 bpa vs. 178.9 last report; Beans @ 51.6 bpa vs. 52.1 last report
-Quarterly stocks: Corn @ 12 B bushels; Beans @ 3.7 B bushels
-Market is circling back to the China-US trade dynamic today
-High level talks are supposed to take place this week with speculation that a deal could happen
-Chatter that Trump and Xi may in fact meet before March 1st deadline
-SA weather has turned non-threatening but some damage has been done to the crops

Outlook:

-Beans remain fundamentally weak as our supply side issues were confirmed by Friday’s reports
-Beans are in an ascending trend line for now but need positive news regarding trade to hold
-Mch Corn in my opinion should remain “stuck” unless a Chinese trade resolution encourages buying interest

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 2/11/19:

-Corn down 1; Beans down 9
-Very weak session today following the release of Friday’s delayed reports
-Friday’s WASDE did not surprise the market, final yields: corn @ 176.4 bpa vs. 178.9 last report; Beans @ 51.6 bpa vs. 52.1 last report
-Quarterly stocks: Corn @ 12 B bushels; Beans @ 3.7 B bushels
-Market is circling back to the China-US trade dynamic today
-High level talks are supposed to take place this week with speculation that a deal could happen
-Chatter that Trump and Xi may in fact meet before March 1st deadline
-SA weather has turned non-threatening but some damage has been done to the crops

Outlook:

-Beans remain fundamentally weak as our supply side issues were confirmed by Friday’s reports
-Beans are in an ascending trend line for now but need positive news regarding trade to hold
-Mch Corn in my opinion should remain “stuck” unless a Chinese trade resolution encourages buying interest

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 2/8/19:

-Corn up 1-2; Beans down 1/2
-It’s report day! The market will be receiving critical data from overdue USDA reports
-To be released is the FEB WASDE, JAN WASDE, Quarterly Stocks, and COT data
-The information in the JAN WASDE should be the focus for the market
-Average guesses for yields: 1 BPA reduction for corn and .3 BPA reduction in beans
-Average guesses for quarterly stocks: Corn @ 12.1 B bushels, Beans @ 3.7 B bushels vs. 12.6 & 3.1 respectively last year
-USDA will release reports @ 11am
-Speculation that Trump will prohibit Huawei (Chinese telecom company) from doing business in the US via executive order, fueling concerns about a trade deal
-Mch 1st deadline for a Chinese trade deal is looming and it was said yesterday that Trump and Xi are unlikely to meet before then

Outlook:

-Calls today are for the market to potentially be very volatile as this missing data is dumped today
-The quarterly stocks/ yield guesses are in my opinion bullish corn and bearish beans
-Good time to be putting orders in with your grain buyer in case we see short lived upside

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 2/5/19:

-Corn Unch; Beans Unch
-Another lethargic trading session as Chinese trade talks remain in limbo
-The US Delta region is said to begin corn planting by the end of February
-Being reported that China has purchased 2.6 MMT from the US
-The 5MMT commitment from China appears to have been fulfilled at this point
-Dr. Michael Cordonier has lowered Brazil bean production to 113 MMT from 114 MMT
-Total corn exports year to date are up 298 M bushels vs. last year at this time

Outlook:

-My expectation is that the USDA “data dump” on Friday feb 8th this week will give corn a new direction
-Trade I think is eager to see the missing data and may create volatility in both markets
-Good idea to be using orders ahead of these delayed reports to capture short lived opportunities

CHS Brandon is proud to announce a new scholarship program for students interested in Ag careers. Go here for more information: https://www.chsbrandon.com/scholarship-program/

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Afternoon Market 2/4/19:

-Corn closes up 1; Beans close up 3
-Lethargic trade action today with nothing new coming from China trade
-This week will likely be quiet on trade headlines as China is observing its week long Spring Festival
-This week will also likely focus on expectations of delayed USDA data to be released on Friday Feb, 8th
-Last weeks bean rally on Friday was a knee jerk reaction to China announcing the will buy 5MMT of US beans
-5MMT of US beans equal to 183 million bushels
-The impact of 183 M bushels of bean exports to China means a 5% reduction in the current stocks/use ratio

Outlook:

-With the announcement of China buying more beans, I think this continues to solidify the ascending trend line for beans in the short term
-The USDA “Data Dump” on feb 8th could alter established trading ranges

CHS Brandon is proud to announce a scholarship program where we will be selecting 10 candidates for a $500 award.
Go here for more details: https://www.chsbrandon.com/scholarship-program/

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!

Morning Market 1/29/19:

-Corn down 1; Beans down 4-5
-Fear of renewed trade tensions is hitting the markets today
-Trump has indicated he will turn down an offer from China if necessary and pursue additional tariffs
-SA weather is improving, also putting markets on the defensive
-Market is eager to receive the missing USDA reports and could create volatility leading up to the release date
-The US has imposed sanctions on a state owned Venezuelan oil company to ham string the illegitimate dictator Nicolas Maduro, $11B/year in losses

Outlook:

-Delayed USDA reports may be the catalyst to pull corn and beans in a new direction
-Using orders is a good way to capture short lived upside opportunities
-Marketing 101 workshop is being offered Friday, Feb 1st in Canton @ 10am

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Morning Market: 1/28/19

-Corn down 1; Beans down 5-6
-Reports of rain relief in Brazil over the weekend has the bean market on the defensive today
-The extended forecast has turned wetter as well
-Gov has temporarily reopened until Feb 15th
-USDA has announced that the pivotal Jan WASDE will be released on Feb 8th alongside the Feb WASDE
-A release of export and quarterly stocks data has not been announced but assumed that it will be out this week sometime
-US and China set to have trade talks Jan 30th -31st
-Potentially record setting cold weather to move in this week over most of the Midwest

Outlook:

-The bean market is in an ascending trend line correction today but the chart suggests we could bounce off the recent low of $9.10
-It feels as though the USDA data dump could push corn and beans outside of established trends in the coming weeks
-Take a look at using orders: $4.05 dec 19, 3.83 Mch 19, 9.25 Mch 19, and 9.65 Nov 19 are great targets.
-Marketing 101 class available in Canton on Feb 1st @ 10am

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions


Morning Market 1/25/19:

-Corn Unch; Beans Unch
-Shaping up to be a stagnant trade today
-Nothing new or fresh for the market to trade on fundamentally so technicals are front and center
-Trump has been reiterating this week that at the end of Feb new tariffs will be applied if no deal
-Different opinions circulating as to the severity of Brazil’s drought
-More chatter about acre loss in Argy due to excessive rain
-Next round of trade talks set for Jan 29th-30th

Outlook:

-Market is ready for a headline to break on something
-Ask us about orders! Very underutilized tool in most marketing plans.
– I would recommend a Dec 19’ sale @ $4.05 on 10-15% of your production or a Mch 19’ $3.83 sale for your old crop bushels
-101 Marketing Workshop is being offered in Canton on Feb 1st @ 10am

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/24/19:

-Corn down 1; Beans up 1-2
-Market is in “wait and see” mode today
-The trade is waiting for news on the usual suspects: China trade, gov shutdown, SA weather
-Optimism remains on a trade resolution with China but Trump has indicated he is prepared to say “no” on a deal
-Informa has released acre estimates: Beans @ 86.2M & Corn @ 91.5M acres
-Market has largely ignored acres estimates at this point
-SA weather still looks tenuous, the 1-5 day is showing wetter brazil and drier Argy
-Crop estimates for Brazil continue to decline
-Early harvest is underway in certain parts of Brazil and Chinese boats are lining up

Outlook:

-The upcoming trade talks scheduled for Jan 29-30th will be important for the market
-Corn is trading in a very tight converging trend and at some point will need break out, up or down
-Lack of USDA reports, specifically the Jan WASDE, is helping to stagnate corn I think

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Morning Market 1/23/19:

-Corn up 1; Beans up 6-7
-Markets are bouncing back a little today
-Yesterday false headlines circulated that the US canceled China trade talks scheduled for Jan 31
-Rumors also circulated that the US has rejected an offer from China to end the trade war
-Larry Kudlow is saying that the scheduled meetings will still take place and deal has not been offered
-Larry also saying that they plan on drawing a line in the sand with China by saying a deal “has to be in America’s interest”
-SA weather continues to threaten crops there
-Ideas now that excessive rain will hurt Argy beans
-Dry conditions in central and northern Brazil have not improved, extended forecast saying no change

Outlook:

-Even though headlines proved to be false, it still sparks a concern to me that a deal could be derailed
-Trade is still waiting on gov reports especially the Jan 12th WASDE to determine a new direction

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/21/19:

-Today is Martin Luther King day so the markets are closed in observance
-Markets had another good upside move on Friday last week
-Headlines are circulating on an assortment of trade news, some claiming that China has made a deal
-Nothing is substantiated as of yet by US officials or the POTUS
-Crop estimates continue to decline in Brazil as more and more independents see crop issues
-Trade will resume tonight @7pm

Outlook:

-Per the bull in me, I am looking for some upside volatility on the open tonight and into tomorrow
-However, the bean market has rallied 20 cents in two days and will be looking for validation on good trade news
-Corn is still trading within established trends but SA weather is positive as well as rumors of China tendering US corn
-Marketing 101 class in Canton tomorrow Jan 22nd @ 10am!

“The time is always right to do what’s right” -Martin Luther King

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Morning Market 1/17/19:

-Corn Unch; Beans up 1-2
-More modest rebounding today after Tuesday’s slide
-Beans have managed to stay above its ascending trend line for now
-Both corn and beans have dipped below their 100 & 50 day MA’s
-A top level Chinese official is scheduled to be in DC Jan 30-31st to talk trade
-FSA offices have opened temporarily at select locations, for more information click this link:
https://www.farmers.gov/sites/default/files/documents/OpenFSAServiceCenters
Outlook:

-The markets interaction with its 100 & 50 day moving averages (MA’s) may give a sense of price direction in the short term
-I will be holding a 101 marketing class to discuss basic market concepts next week Tuesday Jan 22nd @ 10am in the Canton office

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/16/19:

-Corn up 2-3; Beans down 1
-Markets are finding some technical buying interest today after yesterday’s slide
-It has been a technical driven trade the last couple of days as both markets breached floors to signal further selling
-Trade is in limbo on fundamental (S&D) data as USDA reports remain absent
-Trade is also awaiting a trade resolution & continuation of the SA weather narrative
-Hearing that Iran and So Kor have purchased some sizable amounts of US corn
-The US and China are said to meet again around Jan 31st to talk trade

Outlook:

-I remain bearish on beans in the long term for two reasons: the S&D picture is ugly, and we are missing our demand window into China as the SA bean crop is being harvested
-I am bullish on corn still until the fundamentals change or the market starts trading acres for next year

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/15/19:

-Corn down 3-5; Beans down 9-10
-Both markets stuck in a downward grind with so many unknowns
-Nothing feeding the bull today
-The bulls want to see USDA reports, Chinese buying, and degrading SA weather
-Central Brazil has reportedly received some rain relief but will turn dry again in extended forecast
-Nothing positive or fresh to entice buying interest today
-Corn is following beans and wheat

Outlook:

-Beans are beginning to chip away at SA weather premium along with premium built on Chinese trade expectations
-Corn remains strong fundamentally but will struggle to chart its own path from beans and wheat
-USDA reports are key for both markets on a new direction; for corn the lack of finalized yields and export projections is harmful

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Morning Market 1/14/19:

-Corn up 2-3; Beans down 4-5
-The bulls are running in corn today with lack of gov reports
-Beans taking a breather as nothing new or positive has been announced with either SA weather or China trade
-Reported today that bean purchases from China for Dec 18’ was the worst Dec performance since 2011
-Brazilian weather is basically unchanged from Friday, central and northern areas remain dry
-Arg is expected to dry up and Brazil to receive rain in the 5-7 day forecast
-Despite tariffs, China’s trade surplus set a new record up 17% year on year

Outlook:

-Weather premium is eroding today a bit I think
-While yields are hurt to some degree in Brazil, they will likely still have a big enough crop that is bearish for US bean market
-Corn market is charting its own path today, lacking fresh news on domestic S&D data

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/11/19:

-Corn up 2; Beans up 4-5
-Markets rebounding a little today
-Bean market had a major correction yesterday due to unmet expectations on China/US trade progress
-Brazil has received some rain relief but not out of the woods yet
-Arg beans are said to be ok with little to no effect yet from excessive moisture
-Average estimates for Arg and Brazil production are 55.29mmt and 120.1mmt respectively
-Most of the risk premium built into soybeans on trade progress has evaporated
-Fund rebalancing was a factor in yesterday’s hard slide
-Despite yesterday’s slump March corn & beans did hold above their 50 day MA’s of 3.77 & 9.05 respectively
-Today’s WASDE report is delayed indefinitely due to partial gov shutdown

Outlook:

-Potential for both markets to bounce back if a deal can be struck with China in the near term
-China has been buying during trade talks but the market is unable to confirm the quantity, I think China is still buying to fill reserves and extend goodwill
-Still a very good idea to be thinking about price targets and be ready for rally opportunities

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Morning Market 1/10/19:

-Corn down 3-4; Beans down 15
-Market is digesting trade progress with China today and Brazilian crop estimates
-China stated that the two sides have “established a foundation” going forward with very few details given
-CONAB has reduced the Brazilian bean crop from 120mmt to 118.8mmt
-CONAB surprisingly has raised the first corn crop estimate slightly from 91.1mmt to 91.2mmt

Outlook:

-I think the market had an expectation of where trade progress might land but also discouraged to a degree that a resolution is absent
-Market is weighing SA crops more heavily today I believe and weather for the next 2-3 weeks will be key
-Corn is along for the ride today but also weighing SA corn crop

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/9/19:

-Corn up 1-2; Beans up 3-4
-Market recovering some of its losses from yesterday
-Buying interest in both markets attributed to SA weather and trade optimism
-USDA reports remain delayed indefinitely until a spending deal is made
-This leaves the market guessing to a degree on many different metrics
-Brazil’s 10-14 day forecast predicting missed rains due to high pressure system over bean belt
-Completely opposite situation in Arg as excessive rains expected to continue and cause flooding
-The USDA has extended the sign up deadline for the MFP (Trump Money) program
-US officials said to release trade talk statement @ 7pm
-Gov shutdown looks to continue as both side are firmly entrenched

Outlook:

-3 factors that are affecting market direction: trade progress, SA weather, and gov shutdown
-I think a lot of risk premium has already been built into the bean market and we could be one rain away in Brazil from losing it
-The market will need to reconcile USDA reports once released and in the meantime could bottle up a lot of volatility

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/8/19:

-Corn down 1; Beans down 6-7
-Brazil received some below average rain relief
-Beans also getting beat up a little today on profit taking
-Chinese trade talks are going well as US officials signal that a deal can be made soon
-Talks have continued into today
-Rumor that China is buying beans but when and how much remains a mystery until USDA reporting can confirm
-All or most USDA reports have ceased indefinitely during gov shutdown
-SA forecast suggesting that northern Arg stays wet and central Brazil stays dry
-CONAB to release Brazil crop estimates Jan 10th, expectation is a reduction in corn and bean production
-Trump to address the nation from the Oval Office @ 8pm CT concerning border security

Outlook:

-I think beans are correcting today in an overbought environment
-Trade news is positive and SA weather remains tenuous which should continue to give beans support
-It will be interesting to see where corn goes with lack of final yields, exports, and December stocks data

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/7/19:

-Corn Unch; Beans up 1-2
-Market is in “wait and see” mode on a number of issues today: Trade talks, gov reports, and SA weather
-Trade talks are happening as planned today, no official word on outcome yet
-Most if not all USDA reports have ceased indefinitely until spending deal is made
-Key USDA reports missing: Fund position, export sales, WASDE, and December stocks
-SA weather has been able to push and shove its way into the headlines in the last couple weeks
-Brazil received rain over the weekend but looks drier again this week
-Arg remains too wet but viewed as very little impact to the crop at this point
-The pivotal Jan 11th WASDE will be delayed regardless of spending deal but a new release date should be announced

Outlook:

-Both markets cautious on a new direction
-We are seeing attractive new crop futures levels: Beans @ 9.60; Corn @ 4.03
-Old crop opportunities looking better in both markets, have price targets in mind!

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Some CHS locations have winter hours now of 8am-4pm
For more information : https://www.chsbrandon.com/grain/grain-locations/

Midday Market 1/4/18:

-Corn up 2-3; Beans up 6-7
-Market is trading SA weather today and positive trade rhetoric
-Some key areas of Brazil have reportedly experienced a 30 day drought
-Reports also saying that impacts to the crop in affected areas could be “catastrophic” if no relief comes
-Brazilian crop projections are being reduced and the next CONAB report will be Jan 10th
-Rumor that China has been buying US beans but no Gov reports to substantiate the rumor
-USDA announced that the critical Jan 11th WASDE will be delayed due to gov shutdown

Outlook:
-Corn market is building premium around the prospect of a yield reduction on the now delayed Jan WASDE
-Keep in mind that we are seeing risk premium being built into both markets, have price price targets in mind in case opportunities slip away
Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/3/19:

-Corn up 1; Beans up 3-4
-Reluctant buying interest in corn & beans today
-SA weather is giving us some strength
-Trade is looking for a new direction from SA crop issues or Chinese buying/trade deal
-China and the US are scheduled to meet Jan 7th in Beijing
-USDA will announce tomorrow if the critical Jan 11th WASDE will be delayed
-China relies heavily on beans from Brazil and crop losses there could be leverage for the US at the negotiating table

Outlook:
-Corn feels range bound in the short term until something new breaks
-I think MCH corn has the potential of hitting $4 futures at some point so never hurts to be thinking about target prices on unsold grain
-Beans are building premium around SA weather and positive trade news for now
Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 1/2/19:

-Corn down 1; Beans up 12-13
-SA weather has permeated the trade today as Brazil appears to be dry with above normal temps forecasted
-Corn export and ethanol numbers are weak, leading corn to stagnant today
-Trade wants to see continued buying interest from China
-Talk of a fund rebalancing event that will happen next week
-China and the US scheduled to meet on Jan 7th to talk trade
-Jan 11th WASDE may be delayed due to government shutdown
-Rumor that China could buy another 2 MMT of soybeans soon
 
Outlook:
-There is enough soybeans still developing in Brazil to get the trades attention on the developing dry conditions
-I think beans could retract back to around 8.30 cash which is a recent high set back on the Dec 12th
-I would also be rewarding bean rallies and scale up pricing
-Corn is stuck in sideways trade and in the short term may stay that way due to demand shortfalls
 
Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!

January 2019

December 2018

Midday Market 12/31/18:

-Corn down 1-2; Beans down 1
-Sluggish holiday trade today
-Beans started off in positive territory today but lost some steam
-Trump tweeted over the weekend that he had another round of positive interactions with President Xi
-Market is eyeballing SA weather more and more as the crop is still developing in Arg and parts of Brazil
-Early bean yields are being reported as “disappointing” in Brazil but they are still on pace to have a record crop
-Total bean production in Brazil is beginning to be adjusted down anywhere from 3-5 MMT

Outlook:

-The SA bean crop is on shaky ground but weather impacts will effect Arg more than Brazil in my opinion
-I think the market will begin to trade SA weather after the new year
-Corn is loosing a step with beans but I remain optimistic on upside into the new year

Thanks! Have a safe and happy New Year celebration!


Midday Market 12/28/18:

-Corn up 2-3; Beans up 13-15
-Bean meal is giving us strength today
-Corn is up in sympathy
-China is allowing US rice imports for the first time ever
-Strong optimism on more China bean purchases upcoming and/or a trade resolution
-US and China are said to be meeting on Jan 7th to talk trade
-Brazil weather is non-threatening but some damage has been done on early beans due to dryness
-Arg weather is too wet in key areas and concern that crop may get hurt
-Trump threatens to cancel USMCA deal if border wall doesn’t get funded
-Expectations of a showdown between Trump and newly elected house Democratic’s to take place
-Sears has until the end of day to either get bought out or file bankruptcy
-All USDA reports have ceased through gov shutdown

Outlook:

-I am a tad bullish on SA weather giving us upside but it is still very early to bank on it
-Any significant bean upside could be handicapped by bearish ending stocks
-Corn is along for the ride today but I am optimistic that it will find it’s own path to the upside in JFM

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 12/27/18

-Corn up 1; Beans Unch
-Hope everyone had an awesome Christmas with family!!
-Sluggish holiday trade today with no real excitement to speak of
-Month end consolidation taking place today as well
-China trade, politics, and SA weather is still front and center for beans
-Government shut down is in effect which means the Jan WASDE could be delayed or cancelled
-Tariff aid payments will temporarily discontinue at the Lincoln county FSA beginning 3pm today
-Statewide FSA offices will not reopen next week if shutdown continues
-Details here : https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__content.govdelivery.com_accounts_USDAOC_bulletins_2240e85&d=DwIBAg&c=lAq-Bpf2Dj4ZrYmEHEkmEA&r=b2Gb21O0XUhL49XzT6Y_Dmfq99TsqiebENbhtuLwGAU&m=5xfpkEWzmsbkFLLMaRmDjnshZINkVW_6BuqBKekBp2w&s=zn2N5VQnmAeTNVl9hTgTLqsMrX_tEhAEb5Hmu05h-aU&e=
-SA weather is ok with rain relief but chatter that dryness has hurt crops in some areas

Outlook:

-Market needs new direction from trade, SA production, global demand, gov reports, etc…
-Nothing positive right now to lift markets out of month end and stagnant holiday trade
-I expect markets to bounce back a few pennies post holiday and month end

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 12/13/18:

Corn up 1; Beans down 9-10
-Bean market struggling find continued buying interest today
-China has been buying to the tune of 1.5 MMT of US soybeans since yesterday
-Market seems to have been “buying the rumor and selling the fact” leading up to this suspenseful and highly anticipated crescendo of the trade war
-Soybeans hit its highest price since June 15th yesterday, looking at the chart the market started trading tariffs on May 25th
-The House has passed the new Farm Bill and is ready for Trumps signature Tuesday next week
-Corn market is a bit stuck today with month end consolidation

Outlook:

-Today’s bean market doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me but am hearing that traders want to see more Chinese buying
-My bias is that this is a short term correction for beans and let’s see what tomorrow brings
-Corn has been steady as a rock today and I think it will continue to do so until the demand outlook changes

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS grain location or representative with any questions!


Afternoon Market 12/12/18:

-Corn Unch; Beans up 4
-Trade optimism is fueling buying interest today but has backed off
-Trump is tweeting positive rhetoric today fueling the optimism
-It was announced that the 2nd half MFP payment will be delayed again
-Gathering that markets are hopeful tariffs will be removed soon
-Equity markets are up triple digits in optimism today as well
-Mexico bot 130 kmt of US soybeans in what’s considered a routine sale
-Another 110kmt US soybeans was purchased as well, destination unknown
-Weather is trending dryer in areas of Brazil and Argy, causing a few heads to turn
-Corn is holding together in sympathy with beans today

Outlook:

-Market still waiting on tangible demand from China, a deal to be made, and the buying to start
-I think we are seeing very good new crop opportunities, corn @ 3.54 cash and beans @ 8.70
-Earlier the better on nc 19’ marketing
-CHS has compass options available to start marketing 19’ corn @ 4.25, subject to market change

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 12/11/18:

Corn Unch; Beans up 3-4

-Market remains cautious until more trade news breaks
-Trump tweeted today that good conversations with China were happening and to expect important announcements
-Chatter that the arrest of a Chinese CEO at the DOJ’s behest could torpedo trade talks
-CONAB released Brazil production estimates this AM that came close to expectations
-A record breaking bean crop is still expected in Brazil but estimates remain modest
-Weather is trending drier in certain areas of Brazil but non-threatening at the moment
-December WASDE was released @ 11am, nothing surprising in it other than some global S&D changes
-USDA will finalize yields on the Jan 11th WASDE

Outlook:

-Optimism on the trade front is keeping support in beans for now
-If a record SA bean crop happens it makes for a very bearish environment going into next year.
-When, why, and how much we trade with China will be key for our markets
-I’m optimistic on corn going into next year as we look at global demand, domestic demand, and potentially another yield reduction on the Jan WASDE
-Argument to be made if corn can find upward mobility despite a weak bean market

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS grain location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 12/5/18:

-Corn down 1; Beans up 1
-Lack of Chinese trade details keeping Ag markets quieter today
-Trade was weaker overnight but is bouncing back a little today
-China has issued first statement since trade talks saying nothing that’s very surprising to the market: We will “expand imports according to the needs of the domestic market and people”
-The demand window is shrinking with China so we are left wondering when the buying will occur
-Rumors circulating that at this point China could simply buy beans to replace reserves
-Stock Market is closed in honor of George H.W. Bush today

Outlook:

-Trade still waiting for a reason to buy but also aware of how the demand window is shrinking
-Regardless of how and why China starts buying, it will be positive to bean market once they start
-In the short term, I see corn and beans staying sideways until something new breaks
“We know what works. Freedom works. We know what’s right. Freedom is right”
-George H.W Bush, Rest In Peace


Morning Market 12/4/18:

-Corn up Unch; Beans up 4
-Some follow through buying today after yesterday’s positive trade news
-Market is still digesting the trade talk details and more specifically the lack thereof
-China has 90 days to offer a plan of changes centered around US demands
-90 day period beginning on Dec 1st not Jan 1st as was initially reported
-Another round of trade talks are scheduled for mid-December
-Farmer selling yesterday was significant and worked to mute some of the upside
-SA is on pace to have another solid corn and bean crop, chatter that Brazil will be harvesting well ahead of average

Outlook:

-Speculative bean buyers are said to be waiting in the wings for a reason to buy
-With the trade details lacking, the specs I think are reluctant to stick their neck out
-If a trade resolution were to occur, we cannot forgot how fundamentally bearish beans are at the moment
-Basis outlook: I am neutral on basis for corn & beans until a few market variables play out such as Chinese trade, global corn demand, and how the MFP will skew equilibrium
-Never hurts to establish orders in a volatile market!

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


Midday Market 12/3/18:

-Corn up 2-4; Beans up 10-11
-The big story today is trade progress with China
-Talks between the US and China went well as both countries agreed to halt further tariffs for 90 days
-China stated that they will be buying “substantial” amounts of US Ag products to reduce trade imbalance
-Most of the details are left ambiguous at the moment and these details will be key to market direction going forward
-Corn is a follower today riding the coattails of the bean market
-Winter weather will make remainder of harvested corn difficult across the belt
-Chatter that Milo/Ethanol business will increase with China going forward

Outlook:

-Market is left to digest trade details and will be questioning the when & where of agreements made
-I think upside was muted in beans to a degree as there is a perceived reluctance due to bearish fundamentals coupled with farmer selling
-WASDE out on Dec 11th next week

Thanks! Call your nearest CHS location or representative with any questions!


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